"Welcome to Twitter Mr. Western Puppet," one comment to Ahmad
al-Jarba read. Others called him a Saudi stooge and scorned the
opposition's perceived ineffectiveness.
The comments reflect
the deep disillusionment and distrust that many Syrians have
come to feel toward the Syrian National Coalition, Syria's main
opposition group in exile. They also underline the predicament
of who will represent the Syrian opposition at an upcoming peace
conference in Geneva marking the first face-to-face meeting
between Syria's warring sides.
The Geneva talks have raised the possibility of a negotiated
end to a conflict activists say has killed more than 120,000
people. But with a fractured opposition, many have little hope
for strong negotiations with emissaries of President Bashar
Assad.
"Each of them represents himself and maybe his wife," said an
anti-government activist in the central Homs province, who uses
the pseudonym Abul Hoda. "Nobody here pays any attention to what
they say."
The Syrian National Coalition is seen by many as a disparate
group of out-of-touch exiles with inflated egos and non-Syrian
allegiances. Syrians often deride it as the "five-star-hotel
opposition" for spending more time meeting in luxury hotels than
being on the ground in Syria.
Damascus-based opposition groups call members of the
coalition traitors for demanding U.S. military airstrikes
against Syria following a chemical weapons attack in August that
killed hundreds. But groups known as the "internal opposition"
are themselves seen as aging and submissive to Assad's
government, incapable of playing an effective opposition role
for fear of arrest.
More importantly, the rebel factions that hold the real power
on the ground won't go to Geneva. Some of the most powerful
Islamic brigades have distanced themselves from the coalition.
Meanwhile, rebels are losing ground to a crushing government
military offensive.
"Given the lack of unity amongst the opposition, the West and
regional allies such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia will struggle to
establish a representative negotiation partner that is willing
to engage with the Syrian government," said Torbjorn Soltvedt, a
senior analyst at the British risk analysis firm Maplecroft.
He added that negotiations likely will prove futile until
there is a significant shift in the balance of power on the
ground. "As such, the Syrian conflict is still likely to be
decided on the battlefield," he said.
The Syrian foreign ministry said this week that it will send
a high-level delegation to the talks with clear directives from
Assad. Although it hasn't said who will be going, Syria's
Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem is expected to head the
delegation.
It is much less clear who from the opposition side will be at
the talks. Their deep splits will make it extremely difficult to
select a unified opposition delegation.
Western leaders have made clear they expect the coalition to
be the chief negotiator on the opposition side at the
conference, set for Jan. 22. The group has called on others to
participate in a delegation under its command.
