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 Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased by 180,000 last
month, according to a Reuters survey of economists, down from
October's gain of 204,000 jobs. The gains, however, would be above
the 174,000 monthly average for the past six months.
"We are on a pretty solid trend, we are maintaining the course and
job gains are continuing at a solid pace," said Laura Rosner, an
economist at BNP Paribas in New York.
The unemployment rate is forecast to slip a tenth of a percentage
point to 7.2 percent as some federal workers who were counted as
jobless in October returned to work after a 16-day partial shutdown
of the government.
An anticipated drop in the participation rate — the share of
working-age Americans who either have a job or are looking for one —
is also expected to pressure the jobless rate lower in November. The
rate hit a 35-1/2-year low in October.
"We are going to see a continuation of the trend. It's the result of
discouraged workers, those who have been unemployed for a while,
dropping out as the holiday approaches and resuming their search
early next year," said Alan MacEachin, an economist at Navy Federal
Credit Union in Vienna, Virginia.
"We also have the effect of end-of-year retirements," he said.
The Labor Department will release its closely watched employment
report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. (1330 GMT), little more than a week
before the Fed's December 17-18 policy-setting meeting.
Minutes from the U.S. central bank's last meeting in October showed
officials were preparing to scale back their monthly $85 billion
bond-buying buying campaign in coming months as long as the economy
continues to improve.
MIXED ECONOMIC DATA
Economic data so far for the fourth quarter have been mixed, with
labor market and consumer spending indicators firming. However, the
housing market and business spending have slowed.
A stronger-than-expected reading on job growth in November could
stir speculation the central bank might reduce its current pace of
bond purchases this month, but most economists feel the Fed will
want further signs of economic progress before acting.
"There are still many boxes that remain unchecked. Inflation is too
low, income growth is not accelerating," said Thomas Costerg, U.S.
economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York.
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"The Fed would like to see the participation rate stabilizing. The
Fed is in no rush to taper and this report should not change that."
Economists also believe the central bank will probably not want to
pull the trigger before lawmakers on Capitol Hill strike a deal to
fund the government.
While a few economists look for the Fed to scale back its purchases
in December or January, most expect it will hold off until March,
and some believe it may wait until June.
Economists expect the anticipated job gains in November to be
broad-based. Government payrolls are forecast being flat, with
hiring by state and local governments offsetting a decline in
federal government employment.
Manufacturing payrolls are expected to rise for a fourth straight
month and construction employment likely added to October's gains
even as the housing recovery slowed.
Retail employment is expected to increase, but a late Thanksgiving
holiday could have resulted in some of the seasonal hiring not being
captured in November's report. Leisure and hospitality, as well as
professional and business services payrolls are also expected to
show gains.
Other details of the report are expected to show average hourly
earnings rose by 0.2 percent after edging up 0.1 percent in October.
The length of the workweek was expected to rise to an average of
34.5 hours from 34.4 hours.
[By Lucia Mutikani © 2013 Thomson Reuters. All
rights reserved.]
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; editing by Meredith Mazzilli)
Copyright 2013 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. |
