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 Who will get the pumpkin from Ukraine at the end of this month —
Russia or the European Union?
More than 20 years after gaining independence from the Soviet Union
and painfully searching for its place on the geopolitical map,
Ukraine has a critical chance to firmly align itself this month with
the EU's democratic standards and free-market zone.
The alternative is to slide back into Russia's shadow, both
politically and economically, a result that Russian President
Vladimir Putin's government is pushing hard to achieve.
Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych has declared that Ukraine's
future lies with the 28-member EU and has pushed through a flurry of
pro-EU laws and reforms. But he has resisted fulfilling the most
important condition set by the EU in order to sign a political
association and free-trade agreement at a summit in Vilnius,
Lithuania, on Nov. 28-29: the release from jail of his top political
rival, former premier Yulia Tymoshenko, who is serving a seven-year
sentence on charges the West considers politically motivated.
"We have a chance to be finally together," said former Polish
President Aleksander Kwasniewski, an EU envoy who has traveled to
Ukraine 27 times over the past 1½ years to urge Yanukovych to
release Tymoshenko and sign the EU deal. "Never (was) Ukraine so
close to being inside the European community."
On Monday, EU ministers were stressing that they do need to see
movement from Yanukovych, especially on judicial and electoral
reform.
"It has got to be reform that is permanent and irreversible and not
just reform for Christmas," said Britain's minister for Europe,
David Lidington.
Most analysts say the EU deal would benefit Ukraine by giving it
access to European markets, bringing its products into line with EU
standards, accelerating much-needed reforms and increasing the
likelihood of Ukraine getting a bailout from the International
Monetary Fund. But, equally important, it would be a precursor to
eventual EU membership and thus cement Ukraine's place in the West,
with its commitment to democracy and human rights.
"I think it could be a total game changer — good for the people and
good for Ukrainian business. I think if it ends up making the choice
to go with Russia, then Ukrainians can forget about European values
and perspectives," said Tim Ash, chief emerging-markets economist at
Standard Bank in London. The alternative would be "relegating
Ukraine's status finally and decisively to that of a second-division
Russian proxy."
But the Kremlin has other plans for Ukraine, which shares a similar
language and common Orthodox Christian faith with Russia. Having
ruled over large parts of Ukraine for centuries, Moscow would hate
losing this large piece of its former empire to the West. Putin's
government has worked aggressively to derail the EU deal while
nudging Ukraine to join a Moscow-led customs union instead.
As Kiev intensified negations with Brussels, Moscow offered Kiev
sweet deals such as price discounts on natural gas and loans. But it
has also brandished a big stick, banning Ukrainian imports on
dubious health grounds and warning of a possible trade blockade.
"Whatever happens, wherever Ukraine is headed, we will still meet
each other somewhere, some place," Putin told The Associated Press
in an interview in September. "Why? Because we are a common people."
With Putin facing a reinvigorated opposition at home, keeping
Ukraine on a leash is also an attempt to legitimize his own power
among Russians nostalgic for their country's former might, according
to Andreas Umland, assistant professor of European studies at the
Kyiv Mohyla Academy. "It distracts from domestic politics, it
creates legitimacy by building an international alliance, a new
collection of lost land."
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Moscow would also feel threatened by a fully democratic Ukraine at
its doorstep, as that would pose a threat to the Kremlin's model of
"sovereign democracy," with manipulated elections and limited
tolerance for dissent.
While a majority of Ukrainians favor an alliance with the EU,
pro-Moscow lobbyists are targeting the part of the population that
tilts toward the historical ties with Moscow. Ukrainian Choice, a
pro-Moscow organization led by a former government official with
close ties to Putin, has dotted the country with billboards warning
of the perceived horrors that would follow the EU deal: price
increases, job losses and, playing on the conservative Orthodox
Christian attitudes, gay marriages.
With Yanukovych unwilling to pardon Tymoshenko, the charismatic
leader of the 2004 Orange Revolution who nearly defeated him in the
2010 presidential election, Kwasniewski has proposed a compromise.
He has urged the Ukrainian parliament to pass a bill next week that
would allow Tymoshenko to travel to Germany to get treated for a
back problem.
But Yanukovych is up for re-election in 2015 and he is maneuvering
hard between Moscow and Brussels, trying to gauge which alliance
would give him the best chance to stay in power.
His choice? Political and financial support from Moscow, which has
never been fixated on clean elections, or the gratitude of
Ukrainians for leading their nation toward the EU, but with the
obligation to hold an honest election that comes with it.
Yanukovych took a mysterious trip to Moscow this month to meet with
Putin, a meeting only belatedly confirmed by the Kremlin. Ukraine's
opposition has accused Yanukovych of selling out to Moscow in
behind-the-scenes talks.
Since the trip, Kiev appears to be stalling on Tymoshenko's release:
Parliament delayed a vote on that last week and Yanukovych's prime
minister described relations with Russia as the nation's top
priority.
The EU, however, is not giving up.
In an emotional speech at a conference in Yalta, Kwasniewski
recalled the remarks by a senior Russian official that Russia, which
shares so much history and culture with Ukraine, was offering Kiev
its love, while Kwasniewski said the EU's offer to Kiev was the rule
of law.
He noted the painful trade sanctions that Moscow imposed on its
neighbor in recent months.
"What kind of love is it?" Kwasniewski asked. "That is full
perversion. That is not love."
[Associated
Press; MARIA DANILOVA]
Copyright 2013 The Associated
Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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